Whether or not it definitely happens depends (partially) on Republicans (and Democrats) honestly evaluating what Speaker Johnson is saying up there and calling in and telling him not push the house to do it. If they and the Senate decide at the last minute not to cut Medicaid because of public pushback, that is not proof he didn't want to cut it in the first place.
It will also be state dependent. Some states have larger thresholds for automatic rollback of Medicaid funding when spending is cut. So, as you know, whether or not it happens in your state or not is not an indication of the final result. Congress is fully aware of the automatic cuts that will happen if they decrease overall Medicaid spending, and why Speaker Johnson is pre-emptively trying to justify it.
The reason I'm predicting Medicaid will be cut, is that the public pressure is largely not there in the face of Speaker Johnson's repeated statements. While Medicaid expansion is majority popular among both parties' voters, the vocal voters in the relevant party in power are those who want to prioritize fiscal budget cutting over all else.